Aspects of the Orange Revolution I-VI

Ukraine’s 2004 presidential election was falsified, spurring the Orange Revolution. To many observers, the Orange Revolution was a shock, and the stolen elections a recent development. However, both the election fraud and the effort to topple the government of Leonid Kuchma emerged from political dynamics that had appeared in earlier Ukrainian elections.

In these six volumes, both established and younger scholars place Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution in the longer perspective of Ukraine’s post-Soviet electoral politics as wells within a comparative framework. The volumes draw upon extensive field research and participant observations by various social scientists specializing in democratization, regime politics, political transitions, electoral studies, and the post-communist world.

Among the questions the volumes try answer are: Why had blatant election fraud not generated mass protest before 2004, but, in that year, did? How was Viktor Yushchenko able to collect enough votes to defeat the establishment candidate Viktor Yanukovych, and become the new President of a socially, geographically and culturally divided country? How did Ukrainian voters break through the barrage of propaganda so as to deliver their ultimate verdict? Was the divide between Eastern and Western Ukraine fact or PR fiction? How was it possible to prevent large-scale violence, and which role did the judiciary play during the quasi-revolutionary events in autumn-winter 2004? What legal foundations and court decisions made the repetition of the second round of the presidential elections possible? Which campaign instruments, and “political technologies” were applied by various domestic and foreign actors to activate the Ukrainian population? How did the

internet and music become factors in the emergence of mass protests involving hundreds of thousands of people? To which degree and how did external influences affect the Orange Revolution?

Covering both presidential and parliamentary elections over the entire post-Soviet period, the first volume clarifies the manner in which earlier elections had emerged as part of the battle for power in Ukraine well before 2004. In the second volume, scholars from two continents examine various aspects of the elections that turned into the Orange Revolution focusing on electoral campaigns and attempts to manipulate results. The third volume provides historical background on, and analytical insight into, the events at Kyiv in late 2004 with contributions ranging from electoral statistics to musicology. The fourth volume provides, apart from scholarly analyses, first-hand accounts that not only investigate, but also gives voice to, some of those involved in the events of 2004. The fifth volume collects not all, but some of the most widely discussed official reports on the three rounds of the elections, including English translations of selected sections of

the reports produced by the CIS International Observers Mission. The last volume compares the Orange Revolution to similar events in Slovakia (1998), Croatia (1999-2000), Serbia (2000), Georgia (2003) and Kyrgyzstan (2005). It explores different regime types and opposition strategies in post-communist states, the diffusion of opposition strategies between states in which democratic revolutions were attempted, the strategic importance of youth NGO’s in mobilizing oppositions towards democratic revolutions, the use of non-violent strategies by the opposition, path dependent, theoretical and comparative explanations of the sources of successful and failed democratic revolutions, and the factors that lie behind divergent post-revolutionary trajectories.

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THE SIX VOLUMES:

D’Anieri, Paul and Kuzio, Taras (Eds.)
Aspects of the Orange Revolution I
Democratization and Elections in Post-Communist Ukraine
(=Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society, vol. 63)
Stuttgart & Hannover: ibidem-Verlag
250 Pages.
Paperback. 2007
ISBN 978-3-89821-698-2
Book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society”
www.ibidem-verlag.de/spps.html
ISSN 1614-3515
34.90 €
Price incl. VAT, plus Shipping

CONTENTS

Introduction to “Aspects of the Orange Revolution I-VI”:
Ukraine’s Second Transition in the Russian Mirror
Andreas Umland

Democratization and Elections in Post-Communist Ukraine

Ukraine’s 1994 Elections as an Economic Event
Robert S. Kravchuk and Victor Chudowsky

Regime Type and Politics in Ukraine under Kuchma
Taras Kuzio

Rapacious Individualism and Political Competition
in Ukraine, 1992-2004
Lucan A. Way

The Ukrainian Orange Revolution Brought More than
a New President: What Kind of Democracy Will the
Institutional Changes Bring?
Robert K. Christensen, Edward R. Rakhimkulov, and
Charles R. Wise

The Last Hurrah: The 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Elections
and the Limits of Machine Politics
Paul D’Anieri

Ukrainian Political Parties and Foreign Policy in Election
Campaigns: The Parliamentary Elections of 1998 and 2002
Anna Makhorkina

The European Union and Democratization in Ukraine
Paul Kubicek

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Harasymiw, Bohdan in collaboration with Ilnytzkyj, Oleh S. (Eds.)
Aspects of the Orange Revolution II
Information and Manipulation Strategies in the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Elections
(=Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society, vol. 64)
Stuttgart & Hannover: ibidem-Verlag
264 pages. Paperback. 2007
ISBN 978-3-89821-699-9
Book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society”
www.ibidem-verlag.de/spps.html
ISSN 1614-3515
34.90 €
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CONTENTS

Introduction
Bohdan Harasymiw

Elections in Post-Communist Ukraine, 1994-2004: An Overview
Bohdan Harasymiw

Breaking Through the Information Blockade:
Election and Revolution in Ukraine 2004
Marta Dyczok

The View from Russia: Russian Press Coverage
of the 2004 Presidential Elections in Ukraine
Ilya Khineyko

Extreme Rhetoric in the 2004 Presidential Campaign:
Images оf Geopolitical and Regional Division
Lyudmyla Pavlyuk

The Language of the Presidential Election Campaign in Ukraine
Valerii Polkovsky

Image Myths in the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Election Campaign
Olena Yatsunska

The Comparative Failure of Machine Politics,
Administrative Resources and Fraud
Kerstin Zimmer

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Bredies, Ingmar, Umland, Andreas and Yakushik, Valentin (Eds.)
Aspects of the Orange Revolution III
The Context and Dynamics of the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Elections
(
=Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society, vol. 65)
Stuttgart & Hannover: ibidem-Verlag
250 pages. Paperback. 2007
Book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society”
www.ibidem-verlag.de/spps.html
ISBN 978-3-89821-803-0
ISSN 1614-3515
34.90 €
Price incl. VAT, plus Shipping

CONTENTS

Introduction

Approaches to a ‘Watershed’ in Ukrainian Politics
Ingmar Bredies, Andreas Umland and Valentin Yakushik

1 Prelude to a Mass Rebellion

Fraud before the ‘Revolution’: Special Precincts
in Ukraine’s 2002 Parliamentary Election
Erik S. Herron and Paul E. Johnson

2 Why and How It Happened

Orange Ukraine Chooses the West, but Without the East
Dominique Arel

Regional Political Cleavages, Electoral Behavior, and
Historical Legacies in Post-Communist Ukraine
Ivan Katchanovski

Shades of Orange: The Electoral Geography of
Ukraine’s 2004 Presidential Elections
Ralph S. Clem and Peter R. Craumer

3 The Context of a Mass Uprising

The Legal Evolution behind the Orange Revolution
Hartmut Rank and Stephan Heidenhain

The Cyberpolitics of Music in Ukraine’s 2004
Orange Revolution
Adriana Helbig

Foreign Intervention in the 2004 Elections:
‘Political Technology’ versus NGOs
Andrew Wilson

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Bredies, Ingmar, Umland, Andreas and Yakushik, Valentin (Eds.)
Aspects of the Orange Revolution IV
Foreign Assistance and Civic Action in the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Elections
(=Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society, vol. 66)
Stuttgart & Hannover: ibidem-Verlag
244 pages. Paperback. 2007
ISBN 978-3-89821-808-5
Book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society”
www.ibidem-verlag.de/spps.html
ISSN 1614-3515
34.90 €
Price incl. VAT, plus Shipping

CONTENTS

Introduction

Domestic and Foreign Factors in the
2004 Ukrainian Presidential Elections
Andreas Umland

I Political Transition and External Forces
in Post-Soviet Societies

Foreign Involvement and International Orientation
in the Orange Revolution
Iris Kempe and Iryna Solonenko

Democracy by Remote Control
Vladimir Frolov

The Orange Revolution’s Distortion of the Citizenry’s Will:
Material for a Complaint by the Party of Regions
Valentin Yakushik

Trans-national Actors in Democratizing States: The Case
of German Political Foundations in Ukraine
Matthias Brucker

II Voices from the Ground: Reports by
International Election Observers

Ukrainians in the Mist: Gorilla Tactics in the
Campaign for Ukraine’s Highest Office
Jake Rudnitsky

Prelude to a Revolution: Reflections on Observing
the 2004 Presidential Elections in Ukraine
Rory Finnin and Adriana Helbig

Observations from the Cherkasy Region
Paul Terdal and Tatiana Terdal

From Sunset to Sunrise in a Territorial Election
Commission: Special Observations during a
Crucial Night
Peter Wittschorek and Hans-Jörg Schmedes

Optimism and Gratitude: Reflections of an Election
Observer in the Poltava Region
Adrianna Melnyk

III The Special Case of Electoral District
No. 100

Election Observation in a ‘Notorious’ Region:
The 100th Constituency in Kirovohrad Oblast
Ingmar Bredies

The Repeat Second Round of the 2004 Presidential
Elections in Kirovohrad
Oxana Shevel

My Experience of a Lifetime: Elections 2004
in Kirovohrad
Volodymyr Bilyk

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Bredies, Ingmar, Umland, Andreas and Yakushik, Valentin (Eds.)
Aspects of the Orange Revolution V
Institutional Observation Reports on the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Elections
(=Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society, vol. 67)
Stuttgart & Hannover: ibidem-Verlag
242 pages. Paperback. 2007
ISBN 978-3-89821-809-2
Book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society”
www.ibidem-verlag.de/spps.html
ISSN 1614-3515
34.90 €
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CONTENTS

Introduction

The Institute of International Election Observation in Ukraine
Jevgen Shapoval

1 Reports by Non-Governmental Institutions

1.1 The International Republican Institute (IRI)

Preliminary Statement on the First Round of the
Ukrainian Presidential Election (October 31, 2004)

Preliminary Statement on the Second Round of the
Ukrainian Presidential Election (November 21, 2004)

Preliminary Statement on the Third Round of the
Ukrainian Presidential Election (December 26, 2004)

1.2 Tel Aviv Institute for the Countries of Eastern Europe
and CIS (ICEE)

Conclusions of the Official Mission of International
Observers on the Presidential Elections in Ukraine
2004 [Excerpts from the Official Report]

1.3 European Network of Election Monitoring
Organizations (ENEMO)

Statement on the First Round of the Presidential
Elections in Ukraine (October 31, 2004)

Statement on the Second Round of the Presidential
Elections in Ukraine (October 31 – November 21, 2004)

Statement on the Third Round of the Presidential
Elections in Ukraine (December 26, 2004)

Summary Report on the 2004 Presidential Elections in
Ukraine

2 Reports by Governmental Institutions

2.1 The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
(PACE)

Press Release: PACE Delegation Expects
‘Corrective Action’ in Time for Ukraine
Election, Kyiv, 29 September 2004

Observation of the Presidential Election in Ukraine
(31 October 2004): Report by the Ad Hoc Committee
of the Bureau of the Assembly

APPENDIX – International Election Observation Mission
Press Release: Widespread Campaign
Irregularities Observed in Ukrainian Presi-
dential Election, Kyiv, 1 November 2004

Observation of the Presidential Elections in Ukraine –
Second Round (21 November 2004): Report of the Ad
hoc Committee of the Bureau of the Assembly

APPENDIX – International Election Observation Mission
Press Release: Second Round of Ukrai-
nian Election Failed to Address Election
Irregularities and Lacked Transparency,
Kyiv, 22 November 2004

Observation of the Presidential Election in Ukraine –
Re-run Second Round of the Election (26 December
2004): Report by the Ad hoc Committee of the Bureau
of the Assembly

APPENDIX – International Election Observation Mission
Press Release: Repeat Second Round of
Election Brings Ukraine Substantially
Closer to Meeting International Standards,
Kyiv, 27 December 2004

2.2 The Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe Office for Democratic Institutions and
Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR)

Final Report of the OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation
Mission on the Presidential Elections in Ukraine on
31 October, 21 November and 26 December 2004
(Warsaw, 11 May 2005)

Annex: Election Results

About the OSCE/ODIHR

2.3 The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

Announcement of the International Observers of the CIS
on the Results of the Observation of the Preparation and
Conduct of the Elections of the President of Ukraine on
31 October 2004 [Excerpts]

Announcement of the International Observers of the CIS
on the Results of the Observation of the Preparation and
Conduct of Repeat Voting during the Elections of the
President of Ukraine on 21 November 2004 [Excerpts]

Announcement of the International Observers of the CIS
on the Results of the Observation of the Preparation and
Conduct of the Repeat Voting during the Elections of the
President of Ukraine on 26 December 2004 [Excerpts]

Conclusions

Monitoring the Election Monitors
Roman Kupchinsky

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Kuzio, Taras (Ed.)
Aspects of the Orange Revolution VI
Post-Communist Democratic Revolutions in Comparative Perspective
(=Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society, vol. 68)
Stuttgart & Hannover: ibidem-Verlag
226 Pages. Paperback. 2007
ISBN 978-3-89821-820-7
Book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society”
www.ibidem-verlag.de/spps.html
ISSN 1614-3515
34.90 €
Price incl. VAT, plus Shipping

CONTENTS

International Diffusion and Postcommunist
Electoral Revolutions
Valerie Bunce, Sharon Wolchik

Democracy or Autocracy on the March?
The Colored Revolutions as Normal Dynamics
of Patronal Presidentialism
Henry E. Hale

Explaining the Success and Failure
of Post-Communist Revolutions
Paul D’Anieri

Color Revolutions: The Belarus Case
David R. Marples

Civil Society, Youth and Societal Mobilization
in Democratic Revolutions
Taras Kuzio

The Dynamics of Autocratic Coercive Capacity
after the Cold War
Lucan A. Way, Steven Levitsky

Power and Persuasion: Nonviolent Strategies
to Influence State Security Forces in
Serbia (2000) and Ukraine (2004)
Anika Locke Binnendijk, Ivan Marovic

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